Turn down the drama – inflation is not returning

Is hot global inflation set to resurge? Widely feared consumer price index acceleration in the US, UK and elsewhere – alongside US tariffs – has many fearing a return to the 2021-2022 period. That supposedly will whack global consumers and “much needed” 2026 rate cuts.

It is time to turn down the drama. Despite some tiny upticks globally, the inflation war is over.

First, understand this: when wars end, their destruction is not magically reversed. Peace just stops new destruction. It is the same with inflation. Current prices remain well above pre-pandemic levels, frustrating many.

The US’s CPI sits 26.4 per cent above December 2019 levels. The Eurozone’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is up 22.8 per cent. Canadian and Australian CPI are up 20.9 and 21.5 per cent, respectively. The UK’s is even worse, up 28.3 per cent.

CPI also understates many people’s experience. Hence, inflation angst is understandable. And fighting the last war – in this case, the recent years’ nosebleed inflation – is a natural, human response.

But prices and inflation are different. Inflation is the speed of changing prices – now 3 per cent year-on-year in America and 3.8 per cent in Britain, based on September CPI. Australia’s inflation of 3 per cent year on year in August echoes those. The Eurozone and Canada’s relatively cooler 2.2 per cent and 2.4 per cent September readings, respectively, nonetheless exceed hoped-for rates – and accelerated from August.

Current inflation pales versus recent highs. Since peaking at 9.1 per cent year-on-year in June 2022, US CPI cooled irregularly to September’s 3 per cent – above the Federal Reserve’s target (which is no