When it comes to sanctions on Russia, the Trump administration has a reputation for chickening out and the EU for pulling its punches. But the latest measures against Russian oil and gas sales look tougher. For three reasons, they might put real pressure on President Vladimir Putin’s war economy.

Three main sets of new oil sanctions were announced last week. First, the two largest Russian oil companies, Lukoil and state-owned Rosneft, and any entities owned half or more by them, are blacklisted by the US and EU. They supplied a quarter of Russian oil exports to China last year. Lukoil’s trading arm, Litasco Middle East DMCC, is mentioned. In addition, secondary sanctions mean that third-party companies dealing with Lukoil or Rosneft could also face exclusion from the American financial system.

Two of the other big exporters, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, had already been sanctioned by the US and UK in January, the EU hitting Gazprom Neft in May. Separately, the UK and EU also designated Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, a major Chinese buyer of Russian crude, for sanctions. The EU sanctioned the Liaoyang refinery, in north-east China, which is the only Chinese refinery running exclusively on Russian oil, delivered through the East Siberia pipeline.

Second, London and Brussels targeted more vessels in the “shadow fleet” transporting sanctioned oil. The US has not added more ships to its blacklist since January, a weakness in the measures, since American sanctions are generally more effective. About 500 to 550 vessels are on the British and EU lists, and only 216 on the American. But the US has sanctioned Chinese ports such as Dongjiakou and Rizhao, known for handling Russian and Iranian petroleum.

Third, resale to Europe of products refined from Russian crude is banned, which will halt a lucrative trade from India.

Oil enjoys its best week since June as US increases sanctions on Russian crude providers 01:49

Why are these measures likely to hit harder?

First, they target both the main Russian sellers, and their key customers. This is in contrast to earlier bans, which diverted oil from Europe to India and China, allowing them to extract discounts, but without hurting Moscow’s overall sales very much. Attempts at imposing a price cap on Russian oil transported with European ships proved largely ineffective because of evasion, lack of enforcement, and the expansion of the shadow fleet.

China, at about two million barrels a day, and India, with around 1.75 million bpd, are the key buyers of Russia’s crude. The main Chinese state companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Zhenhua, will stop handling their usual 250,000 to 500,000 bpd of seaborne Russian oil, at least temporarily. India’s Reliance may have to halt the 500,000 bpd it buys from Rosneft.

Second, market conditions are propitious. Oil prices have slipped pretty consistently this year, apart from a couple of war-related spikes, from a high of $82 a barrel for Brent in January, to $61 just before these latest sanctions.