The US decision to lift sanctions on the Bosnian Serb leader allowed Russia to consolidate its influence in Bosnia and left Serbia out in the cold just as it was moving closer to the West.

In a stunning geopolitical reversal, on October 29, the United States abruptly lifted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader and genocide denier Milorad Dodik – a known Kremlin ally who has long undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. The decision, which contradicts years of US policy, intriguingly coincides with the beginning of direct dealings between Russia and Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska.

The Russians, who had long treated Belgrade as the only authority representing all Serbs across the region, have seriously undermined Serbia’s authority recently by acknowledging Dodik as the rightful representative of Bosnia’s Serb population.

The Trump administration’s unexpected move to lift sanctions on Dodik at a time when he is building a strategic relationship with Moscow signals a potential grand bargain between world powers, raising alarming questions about what Washington gained in exchange for effectively ceding half of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence.

The unexplained reversal

The US unexpectedly removed sanctions from Dodik and his network. This was a sudden, unexplained reversal of a longstanding policy. For years, the US targeted him for trying to destabilise Bosnia, denying genocide, and pushing for secession.