Former US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley has warned that the American and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities in June, while tactically effective, risk setting off a chain of destabilising consequences across the region.

Speaking to The National in New York and referencing an article he co-authored with veteran Palestinian negotiator Hussein Agha, Mr Malley said actions that appear to deliver short-term gains in the Middle East have repeatedly produced the opposite effect over time.

“Things that might succeed in the short term may have very different consequences long term,” he said, adding that the region’s history is “a whole list of military 'successes'” that later backfired.

He pointed to Israel’s operations in Beirut and against the Palestinian Liberation Organisation in Tunis, the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the American intervention in Lebanon.

In each case, he said, “short-term, 'victories' end up boomeranging,” producing outcomes such as the rise of Osama bin Laden, strengthened Iranian influence in Iraq, the Taliban’s return to power, and the emergence of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“Our point is, don't focus on the immediate, because this is a long movie,” he said.

Mr Malley said last summer’s attacks also demonstrated that “Israel had supremacy over Iranian airspace and extraordinary intelligence” about Iranian personnel and facilities. That, he argued, could weigh heavily on Iran’s calculations should it consider rebuilding parts of its nuclear programme.

“If Iran chooses to restore or resume its nuclear programme, it’s going to have to think many times, because it knows that Israel is watching and the US is watching,” he said.

Former US official Robert Malley speaks to The National in New York City on November 10. Joshua Longmore / The National

The strikes “did set back Iran’s nuclear programme,” he added. “It didn’t obliterate it in the way that President Trump said, but it did set it back.”

Asked about a realistic outlook for US-Iran relations, Mr