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There are three broad groups of voters you’re likely to read about in American elections: Democrats, Republicans and independents.

More and more voters have identified as independents in recent years, and when independents break one way or the other, they invariably decide who wins.

But independent voters are far from a united group, as CNN’s polling unit shows with a new project that identifies at least five distinct types of independents.

Many independents, it turns out, aren’t really that independent at all. They’re either “Democratic lookalikes” or “Republican lookalikes,” generally supporting one party’s candidates without feeling an affinity for the party itself.

In addition to the Democratic and Republican lookalikes, there are “Upbeat Outsiders,” the “Disappointed Middle” and the “Checked Out.” Learn more here.

I took these five groupings to a top Republican and a top Democratic pollster to find out how they’ll factor into the 2026 midterms.

Kristen Soltis Anderson, the Republican pollster, is a CNN contributor and founder of Echelon Insights. Molly Murphy, the Democratic pollster, is president of Impact Research.

Our conversations, conducted by phone and email and edited for clarity, are below.

Is Democrats’ brand in trouble?

Democrats have an advantage among independent voters in this survey, but it’s primarily because there’s a larger group of voters who are Democrats in all but name. Is this indicative of Democrats’ branding problem or something else?

MURPHY: While these Democratic lookalike voters are critical toward Democrats, — certainly more critical than self-described Democrats are — it may also be a reaction to Trump, who they are incredibly down on, and Republicans, who they’re incredibly down on. Less a rejection of the Democratic Party and more that they are independents who do not identify with Republicans.

SO