From 7h ago 12.41 BST Putin 'in his heart of hearts realises he can't win this,' US Kellogg says US special envoy Keith Kellogg is back on stage at the Warsaw Security Forum. Speaking about Ukraine, he says that Russia was “not winning this war.” “I think probably in his heart of hearts he realises he can’t win this. This is an unwinnable fight for him, long-term. It’s not going to happen.” Asked about the recent incidents involving Russia in Europe, he appears to signal his support for the idea of shooting Russian drones or jets crossing into Nato airspace. He says: “The way you respond to something like this, from a military background, I would say sometimes you raise what is called the risk level to do it. I will give you a good example. … A few years ago, 2015, the Russians had a Russian fighter invade Turkish airspace. What did the Turks do? They shot it down. Okay, that will get you attention really fast, won’t it? Now, that’s what I mean about raising your risk level. I know it’s the dangerous thing to do. I’ve got it. I understand that. But sometimes you have to ask yourselves, where do you go? … Look, this is serious business. For those of you sitting in uniform in this room, you know that.” He specifically references Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski’s speech at the UN security council, in which he warned Russia that Poland would shoot any jets down in the future. “– So the Russians have been warned? – I think they have.” 1:32 Yvette Cooper says UK will confront Russian planes in Nato airspace – video Pressed about how to get to a trilateral meeting between Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump, Kellogg says “the way you reach [it], sort of like what Ukraine is doing right now, is you make this almost cost prohibitive.” He says that Ukraine is making progress on that target by “hitting the refineries, which cut 20% of their oil production down.” “We are working on people not buying … on secondary sanctions … on buying their oil. Unfortunately, some in Europe are still buying it.” He argued that Russia “is a petrostate, and if you take away the petrodollars, they have got an enormous problem.” “I think the calculus is on Putin, … and basically the pain level he is willing to accept,” he says, pointing to Russia’s growing frontline problems with the Russian army “taking tanks out of museums to bring into the frontlines.” “I think we don’t need to draw any more red lines. He’s got the problem, not the West, and he’s got to make that call, not the West. The West is going to be it’s aligned very, very well, and I have great confidence in it.” Share

2h ago 17.00 BST Closing summary Jakub Krupa … and on that note, it’s a wrap! US special envoy Keith Kellogg has said that Russian president Vladimir Putin “probably, in his heart of hearts, realises he can’t win” the war against Ukraine, as he appeared to signal his