Sorry, Tarifflationistas. The Data Just Proved You Wrong
For months, critics of President Trump’s tariff strategy have warned of an inevitable wave of inflation. That wave turned out to be a ripple, and it seems to have already ended.
The logic of the tarifflationistas sounded straightforward. They claim that if you raise tariffs on imported goods, consumers would pay more for everything. But new data from the Harvard Tariff Price Tracker tell a very different story. A year after the tracking began, prices do not show signs of tariff-induced increases. What’s more, the only meaningful price growth lately has come from goods completely untouched by tariffs.
The Harvard Tariff Price Tracker, built from the work of Harvard economists Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, and Brent Neiman, uses real-time online prices to isolate how tariffs affect different kinds of goods. The index divides products into three groups—imported goods directly affected by tariffs, domestic goods eit
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