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Labour is in “severe trouble” in Wales, polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned, after the party suffered a brutal defeat in a by-election in its heartlands.

Plaid Cymru snatched the traditionally Labour seat of Caerphilly away from Sir Keir Starmer’s party despite a surge in the Reform UK vote overnight on Friday.

The result, which saw Labour come third, marks the first time the party has lost a vote in the former mining town in over a century.

Labour has

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