On 22 September, the Nigerian Government submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The enhanced pledge — estimated to require about $337 billion to implement — was unveiled less than two months before the COP30 Climate Conference scheduled for 10–21 November in Belém, Brazil.

While the submission reaffirms Nigeria’s commitment to global climate targets, concerns abound regarding the viability of translating the ambitions into desired outcomes, especially their prospects of delivering long-lasting succour to communities at the mercy of the climate crisis.

NDCs, country-level pledges under the Paris Agreement, outline strategies for paring down greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change impacts.

The overarching goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep global temperature rise significantly below 2°C above pre-industrial levels as efforts are advanced to limit its surge to 1.5°C.

Signatory countries have a duty to periodically review, update and submit their pledges every five years to reflect new data and emerging national trends.

In 2004, Nigeria ratified the Kyoto Protocol and, in 2017, the Paris Agreement, committing to play a part in the global effort to moderate temperatures and step up climate resilience without undermining food security.

From ‘business-as-usual’ to ‘economy-wide’ reduction

The NDCs submitted by Nigeria in 2015 and 2021 focused on emission control relative to a “busine