It’s Election Day 2025. And the results in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere Tuesday could be some of the most significant dominoes to fall in the federal government shutdown, which is set to become the longest in history on Wednesday.
But the election isn’t the only X factor in the monthlong shutdown that’s evolving even as we speak.
Let’s check in on a number of key variables and sources of potential leverage in the shutdown and how they’re playing.
Election Day 2025
The big ones to watch here are the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
(The New York City mayor’s race and a redistricting ballot measure in California are fascinating for other reasons, but less instructive when it comes to Republican vs. Democrat power dynamics.)
The blue lean of these two states and the history of these races suggest Democrats should win both gubernatorial races. Generally speaking, the party that just lost the presidential race tends to overperform. This year, that’s Democrats.
If Democrats win each race by comfortable margins — say by double digits — they’ll proba
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