As it was becoming clear that Election Day 2025 was a very bad one for Donald Trump’s Republican Party, the president weighed in with his own electoral analysis. He posted a quote Tuesday night that he attributed to unspecified “pollsters” – apparently ones he was watching on Fox News.

“TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,” the quote read.

Trump echoed those comments when speaking to GOP senators Wednesday morning, again pointing to the shutdown and adding, “They say that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor.”

That shutdown’s impact on the elections is debatable. It didn’t seem to be a major subplot in the races Tuesday.

But the other part – Trump not being on the ballot – is actually very important when it comes to assessing the fallout from Tuesday. Indeed, it crystallizes the GOP’s problem moving forward.

That’s because term limits make it so Trump can never be on the ballot again, despite his some

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