The real risk is not the prospect of a Trump-Putin deal struck above the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans. It is, rather, that Putin will use Trump’s desire for a deal to extract concessions from the United States, split the West, and undermine Western support for Ukraine. This would make it easier for Russia to subjugate and take political control of Ukraine; rearm and recover with the strength of the Ukrainian economy and population; and prepare for the next attack on a European country. What’s left of Western alliances and the European security order would be permanently destroyed.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has famously promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on his first day in office, but he has been characteristically vague on how he will do it. Stopping the war is, of course, anything but straightforward. Even if he manages to reach a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is by no means a given, a deal without Ukraine and Europe on board may not mean much. It may not even mean the end of the war.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has famously promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine on his first day in office, but he has been characteristically vague on how he will do it. Stopping the war is, of course, anything but straightforward. Even if he manages to reach a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is by no means a given, a deal without Ukraine and Europe on board may not mean much. It may not even mean the end of the war.

The real risk is not the prospect of a Trump-Putin deal struck above the heads of Ukrainians and Europeans. It is, rather, that Putin will use Trump’s desire for a deal to extract concessions from the United States, split the West, and undermine Western support for Ukraine.