LAS VEGAS — By now, you know the names. Tarik Skubal. Freddy Peralta. Joe Ryan. Sandy Alcantara. MacKenzie Gore. All high-end starting pitchers. All candidates to be traded. But the over-under on how many actually get dealt might be lower than you think.

This early in the offseason, teams frequently mask their intentions, making it difficult to know what to believe. Gore, who has only two years of club control remaining with a rebuilding Washington Nationals club under new general manager Paul Toboni, seems a good bet to go. The others? Maybe not.

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Let’s proceed one by one:

Skubal

As one Detroit Tigers person put it, “We want to win with him.” Well, 2026 figures to be their last chance. Top Scott Boras clients hardly ever sign extensions when they are this close to free agency.

The Tigers surely could do better in a trade of Skubal than they would through draft-pick compensation if he left as a free agent. But to what end? The Tigers have reached the postseason the past two years, reviving baseball in Detroit thanks in large part to Skubal’s presence. Trading him almost certainly would amount to a step back short-term.

A deadline deal might make sense if the Tigers fall out of contention, but the odds of that happening in the AL Central are slim. And another thing: If the Tigers lose Skubal as a free agent, his roster spot would not become a black hole. The team would try, as best it could, to replace him.

Peralta

Like Skubal, Peralta is entering his walk year. Faced with a similar situation two years ago, the Milwaukee Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles for shortstop Joey Ortiz, left-hander D.L. Hall and the 34th pick in the 2024 draft.

The difference with Peralta is that he is set to earn $8 million while Burnes was due nearly twice that amount. The modest salary makes Peralta highly attractive to potential suitors, but also quite affordable for the Brewers.