If the current trajectory holds, the rivalry will harden into a permanent conflict in the next few years. But it’s not too late to change course.
It’s the year 2028, and the China-U.S. rivalry has hardened into a permanent conflict. The economic relationship between the United States and China remains, but has become more expensive, complex, and defined by mistrust. In the U.S., Section 301 tariffs and entity lists remain in place; in China, reciprocal tariffs, export-licensing regimes, and punishing counter-sanctions continue. Each new rule results in a mirror reaction.
Business continues to flow, but supply chain costs are higher, lead times are longer than in previous years, and firms carry more inventory due to higher risk levels.
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