Presidential elections have seen dramatic late swings before. But it would take an earthquake now for Catherine Connolly to be denied victory in next week’s vote, Thursday’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll suggests.

Thursday’s poll is the first of the campaign for which the sampling was conducted entirely after the dramatic departure of the Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin from the race.

And it is clear from these numbers that Gavin’s exit from the campaign – though he remains, of course, on the ballot paper – has not delivered for Heather Humphreys in anything like the way that she might have hoped.

[ Catherine Connolly holds commanding lead in presidential election raceOpens in new window ]

In fact, the reduction of the campaign to a two-horse rac

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