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When voters in Caerphilly in south Wales go to the polls later this month, it will be about far more than one seat in the Senedd, Wales’s devolved parliament.

Caerphilly, a postindustrial town just north of Cardiff, has long been considered safe Labour territory. But in recent years, economic upheaval and social change have made once rock-solid seats like these far less predictable.

The contest is therefore not just about who wins a single seat, but what kind of Wales will emerge from a period of upheaval. Will it be one clinging to the certainties of its industrial past?

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