The pivotal question in November’s New Jersey and Virginia governor races may be whether the outcome is shaped more by President Donald Trump’s electoral strengths or by his weaknesses.

Four years ago, the GOP candidates in both races benefited from one of Trump’s most important political gains: improving the GOP vote among working-class racial minorities. But they were able to minimize the impact of his most conspicuous political vulnerability: a shift away from the Republican Party in white-collar suburbs.

This year, though, the equation seems reversed. Heading into the final weeks, that dynamic has provided a consistent mid-single-digit edge in polls for Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and a wider advantage for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia.

On the one hand, in this off-off-year election, most experts agree that Republican nominees Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia face uphill climbs to activate the low-propensity voters — often younger and nonwhite — whom Trump mobilized in surprising number last year.

“The question for Republicans is: Are those very unique Trump voters that got him closer in New Jersey and Virginia and some other blue states (only) Trump voters or are they Republican voters?” said Mike DuHaime, a longtime New Jersey Republican strategist. “That is what will be answered this year.”

On the other, the Republican candidates could face much larger deficits next month in white-collar suburbs such as Fairfax County, Virginia, and Bergen County, New Jersey, than they did in 2021, when Joe Biden occupied the White House and Trump was much less visible. “We know through a lot of conversations and organizing … that those voters are frustrated and upset with what they are seeing from the Trump administration,” said Mini Timmaraju, president and CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All, a pro-abortion rights group.

Both sides believe New Jersey is a more competitive race than Virginia, partly because Ciattarelli is a stronger candidate than Earle-Sears, but also because Virginia more acutely feels the impact of the sweeping cutbacks in the federal workforce and contracting ranks engineered by Trump and by the formerly Elon Musk-fronted DOGE project.

Virginia is also easier for Democrats because Spanberger is running to replace Glenn Youngkin, the term-limited Republican governor whose approval rating has sagged somewhat, while Sherrill is trying to succeed Phil Murphy, the outgoing Democratic governor, whose ratings have also drooped.