As Beijing weaponizes its dominance over rare earths supplies, US President Donald Trump is cutting deals to try to break the stranglehold. But his claim that America will have an abundance of the critical minerals in just one year’s time may be a fantasy.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths, and you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump said Monday, after unveiling a $8.5 billion agreement to help Australia develop rare earths projects and secure United States access to those elements.

China controls more than 90% of the global output of refined rare earths, which are used to power everything from iPhones to electric vehicles, and this near-monopoly has become one of its most potent tools in its trade war with the US.

Rare earths emerged as a major sticking point between China and the US earlier this year after Beijing imposed unprecedented export c

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