Catherine Connolly’s election is a nadir for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. It is not just the debacle of the campaign. It is the reality that, for the first time since 2007, there will be an alternative government on offer at the next general election.
Sinn Féin was the big winner last Friday and Mary Lou McDonald for taoiseach is now a credible possibility. It is an each-way bet for Sinn Féin. If the left alliance can muster the numbers, that’s fine. But if Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael fall back, and they can’t make it together, Sinn Féin can and would consider a deal with Fianna Fáil under new leadership.
There is deep dissatisfaction in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael with their respective leaders – but if change is attempted, it is not assured.
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