This was the game the NFL needed from the Buffalo Bills at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, a mostly impressive victory laced with just enough uncertainty about what it means for the future.

The Chiefs, Bills and Baltimore Ravens entered this season as consensus favorites in the AFC, but it’s been an adventure.

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With a combined 14-11 record, these three powers have more total defeats through Week 9 than in any season since 2018, when Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were rookies and Patrick Mahomes was a first-year starter. That’s a huge drop from their combined 21-5 record through Week 9 last season, opening the door for emerging AFC contenders to think bigger.

The Pick Six column revisits the AFC as the 2025 regular season’s chronological midpoint arrives Tuesday. How are you feeling about the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens? What about the Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers? NFL execs weigh in to help decipher a murky picture.

The full Pick Six menu:

• Re-stacking AFC contenders

• Will Tucker Kraft’s injury doom Pack?

• Key J.J. McCarthy takeaway

• Record kick only part of story

• Bob Trumpy’s critical call

• Two-minute drill: Bears’ 576

1. The Bills nearly blew out the Chiefs on Sunday, then held on to win by a touchdown. What does it mean?

Before the season, The Athletic’s NFL projection model gave Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City roughly the same chance to reach the Super Bowl, about 22-23 percent per team.

Sunday night, that model showed Indianapolis, New England, Kansas City and Buffalo with roughly equal chances (17-20 percent), with Baltimore, the Chargers and Denver around 7-8 percent. Jacksonville and Pittsburgh were both below 3 percent.

Those figures will shift Monday as the model refreshes with injury and other statistical data more robust than game outcomes, but the bigger picture is clear. What once was a three-team race is now complicated, even if execs around the league still see Kansas City and Buffalo as the favorites.

"Buffalo is not impressive talent-wise, but they are very well-coached," an exec from a Bills opponent said. "My gut just tells me that Buffalo is going to break through this year. They have been pretty unlucky to lose games three of the past four years against the Chiefs (in the playoffs). Those could have gone either way. Eventually, those bounce the other way, so I think they will be fine."

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A Bills defense that ranked 22nd in EPA per play through Week 6 served notice that it still has the capacity to dominate against one of the NFL's hottest offenses. The Chiefs had been riding a Patrick Mahomes-era record six consecutive games with at least +7.0 EPA.

"I would want a real pass rusher if I were Buffalo," the exec added. "They probably could not have afforded this, but Micah Parsons to the Bills would have been a 'holy s---' moment."

Parsons might as well have been out there for the Bills in Week 9.

Before Sunday, Kansas City scoring 44 points on the Bills seemed more likely than Buffalo holding Mahomes to a 44 percent completion rate. It was the first time in 142 total starts that the two-time MVP failed to complete half his passes. That was huge for Buffalo, which has won the teams' past five regular-season meetings. But when the Chiefs were converting fourth-and-17 in a fourth quarter that became uncomfortably frantic for the Bills, Kansas City's playoff dominance (4-0 in the Mahomes era) came to mind.

"Buffalo wants to get into a designer coverage (on fourth-and-17), and all the DBs are yelling and pointing at each other, so they have to call timeout," a coach who watched the game said. "Buffalo is more stressed out about fourth-and-17 than K.C. was!"

The Bills called another defensive timeout with 4:32 left when they had trouble lining up. And when Buffalo missed a 52-yard field goal with 22 seconds left, visions of 13 seconds were warming up.

"When you see that guy (Mahomes) putting that helmet on and walking back onto the field with 22 seconds, that is a nightmare for Buffalo," the coach said.