The original Italian strategic consultant Niccolo Machiavelli, on the question of whether it is better to be feared rather than loved, famously argued that “since love and fear can hardly exist together, if we must choose between them, it is far safer to be feared than loved.”

The Trump administration’s “Americas First” policy arguably represents a significant strategic shift away from the pursuit of U.S. strategic interests through nurturing global support for democracy, universal rights, and institutions. Instead, Washington is taking a much more transactional approach, pursuing more concrete benefits through a combination of carrots and sticks. International relations scholars will long be debating the strategic impact, efficacy, and morality of that shift.

The administration’s recognition of the risks posed by the global advance of China in countries such as Panama and Mexico is strategically important. Nonetheless, its approach to pushing back against China, and to global engagement more broadly, potentially creates a number of indirect effects that could facilitate, rather than slow, Beijing’s influence. It is important for the administration to recognize and adjust for these unintended consequences as it implements President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Expanded Latin American Exports to China

In certain sectors such as agriculture, the U.S. imposition of tariffs on China may lead it to buy fewer products from the United States and import more from Latin America as an alternative. That’s what happened when Trump imposed tariffs on China during his first term: as China bought less U.S. soy, corn, grains, and beef, it expanded the purchase of these products from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.

Similarly, as China continues to