Their growing alliance will not bring stability to the region. Rather, it will raise the geopolitical temperature and provoke more Indian pressure on Bangladesh.

Since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian rule in August of 2024, two shifts in the region are reshaping its geopolitical environment. The first shift has been the steady deterioration in India’s relations with Bangladesh. Troubled by the sudden erosion of its influence, New Delhi has been unable to reduce the speed or degree of divergence in Dhaka’s India policy. At the beginning of 2024, Bangladesh was a prime example of the success of India’s neighborhood first policy. By the end of the year, it had become the most prominent example of its limits.

Many commentators have documented the reasons for this Delhi-Dhaka breakup. I want to speak about the other major shift in South Asia and analyze its antecedents and possible consequences. The growing bonhomie between Dhaka and Islamabad is intriguing, to say the least. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, broke away and became independent in 1971 with India’s help.

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