From shrinking farms to vanishing water and invisible women, Pakistan’s agricultural census reveals a sector on the brink of its own seven lean years.

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And one day the king said,

“I dreamt of seven fat cows eaten up by seven skinny ones; and seven green ears of grain and seven others dry.

O chiefs! Tell me the meaning of my dream if you can interpret dreams.”

The Qur’an, 12:43

The king’s troubling dream foretold years of famine ahead. Today, Pakistan’s Seventh Agricultural Census, released in 2025, delivers a warning of its own. The data emerging from this comprehensive survey reveals structural fractures so deep they threaten the foundation of the country’s agricultural economy.

The census statistics are an early warning for the future of Pakistan’s food security and the livelihoods of nearly 40 per cent of its workforce. Analysis of the census data points to seven interconnected crises that could mark the beginning of Pakistan’s own “seven lean years”, threatening the foundation of the country’s rural economy.

Unlike the biblical king who had a Joseph to interpret his dream, Pakistan must decipher these agricultural omens for itself. And the message in the numbers is unmistakable: the coming years will test the resilience of a farming sector already stretched to its breaking point.

The shrinking farm: A crisis of fragmentation

The most alarming trend is that Pakistan’s farms are steadily shrinking. In Punjab’s most fertile districts, a farmer today might inherit three acres. His grandfather, two generations ago, may have worked the same land as a 12-acre plot. The subdivision among heirs with each generation has carved the family holding into pieces that can barely sustain them, let alone generate profit.

The census shows an overwhelming share of farms are now under five acres. This five-acre threshold is critical because it is roughly the minimum size needed for a farmer to afford or efficiently utilise a tractor and other modern machinery. This leaves a majority of farmers trapped, dependent on costly rentals or inefficient manual labour.

This alluvial diagram visualises Paki