And now, 20 Final Thoughts from Week 12, when I started to realize this year’s College Football Playoff field is not going to resolve itself cleanly. (Not that it ever will.)

1. If, like me, you spend 14 hours every Saturday watching college football, you’ll hear about 237 references to something called the Allstate Playoff Predictor. ABC/ESPN’s announcers treat it with the same reverence they would the Nielsen ratings — or Disney’s stock price.

Advertisement

But I prefer to cite the Mandel Best Guess. After a wild day in the SEC that saw No. 11 Oklahoma take down No. 4 Alabama, No. 3 Texas A&M pull off a 27-point comeback against South Carolina and No. 7 Ole Miss survive an upset bid by Florida, my Best Guess is the SEC is going to send five teams to the Playoff.

And I’m not ruling out the possibility of six. (Ducks for cover.)

2. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables came into the season coaching for his job after going 6-7 twice in his first three years. His Sooners now enter the last two games with a clear path to the Playoff.

Venables, the defensive coordinator for Clemson’s 2016 and 2018 national title teams, has produced a swarming top-10 unit that forced three turnovers, most notably Eli Bowen’s 87-yard pick six, and sacked Tide QB Ty Simpson four times in a 23-21 upset in Tuscaloosa. While quarterback John Mateer has not proven to be a superstar, he doesn’t have to be with that defense.

The Sooners, who close with Missouri and LSU at home, will likely move up to at least No. 8 in Tuesday’s CFP rankings. Win both, and Venables’ fourth team is CFP-bound, as either the SEC’s fourth or fifth representative.

3. It was a humbling day for Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide, who saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end despite outgaining their opponent 406-212. Don’t look now, but over his past three games, Simpson, who was No. 3 in our Heisman Straw Poll last week, has had his three lowest passer ratings since the Week 1 debacle at Florida State. Not that it is all on him. Alabama averaged just 2.4 yards per attempt on the ground.

But I expect the 8-2 Tide will remain in the CFP field for now, with three Top 25 wins, including a victory against No. 5 Georgia.