Hollinger’s 2025-26 predictions: East’s Bottom 7 | West’s Bottom 7

Welcome to a changed Eastern Conference. This was in the cards before anyone even made a move in the offseason, as three playoff torn Achilles tendons (to Milwaukee’s Damian Lillard, Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton) drastically changed the landscape for the coming season. At least one of the Bucks, Celtics or Pacers has played in every Eastern Conference finals since 2016. None of those teams may even be playing in the second round this season.

Advertisement

Instead, get ready for a brave new world, including a new conference champion. There will be some unusual laundry in May and June — of my top five projected teams, only two have made the conference finals since 2018, and each only made it once (Atlanta and New York). Subtract the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the history gets more dire; my projected second- through fifth-place teams have made the conference finals a combined total of three times since 2010.

It seems highly likely that, somehow, among the Cavs, Magic, Knicks, Hawks and Pistons, two of the five will crash the conference finals party in May. Cleveland ran away from the conference with 64 regular-season wins last year and figures to do so again in the regular season, but the Cavs have to prove their bona fides in the playoffs after three straight spring disappointments. Whether they can finally break through is the biggest storyline in the conference.

With that stage set, let’s get into specifics. Here are my projected win-loss records for the top-eight teams in the East, along with what they can do with their rosters in the coming months to impact that total:

7. (tie) Toronto Raptors (39-43)

NBA rules require eight teams to make the playoffs from the East, regardless of how little they might resemble a real playoff team or how aimless their team-building approach seems. I forecast six legitimately decent-to-good teams in this conference, then the Heat will likely be the seventh team just by sheer force of will.

And after those clubs … Toronto? Maybe? I don’t really know what the Raptors are doing or where they think they’re going with this, but because they play in the East, they have a good chance to make the playoffs anyway. Boston and Indiana are likely too injured and tax-averse to win 40 games, Philadelphia might not ever be healthy in our lifetimes, and the Bulls are automatically locked into the No. 9 vs. No. 10 Play-In game, as was written in the prophecies.

Advertisement

Toronto, meanwhile, lacks both depth and cohesion, with shooting a particularly glaring concern (convincing Brandon Ingram that 3s are worth more than 2s could help). But the Raptors’ starting five is clearly more talented than that of their rivals for these spots (full-strength Philly excepted), and they have some outs for the bench to not be disastrous.

Let’s start with the core five, which is big and talented: Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are no-doubt-about-it starters on nearly any roster but on paper don’t seem to complement one another. Working out the kinks between two ball-dominant forwards in Ingram and Barnes, especially with a non-shooting center in Poeltl and iffy spacing options at the other spots, is likely to be the key to making this offense hum.

The Raptors’ in-season work is likely to be limited; I assume they aim to get back under the luxury-tax line, and I can’t imagine taking big swings with the roster they already have. However, if there’s a movable player here, it’s Barrett, an odd fit as a meh shooter playing next to two ball-dominant forwards. He might work better as a sixth man, if only the Raptors had a fifth man worthy of starting in his place, but he would fit even better on another roster entirely. His $27.7 million deal is enough salary ballast for a significant addition, even with Toronto trying to duck the tax.

As for the second unit, the Raptors are leaning heavily on recent draft picks to make some noise. Thus far, they mostly haven’t. Toronto’s bench is led by three recent first-round picks (Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Gradey Dick), and things mostly descend from there. One prays the Raptors will stagger lineups so that one of the four perimeter starters is always on the court, as the second group has no shot creation whatsoever.

However, keep an eye on big man Sandro Mamukelashvili, who has a chance to break out behind Poeltl and inject some life into a moribund bench. I’m also excited about Murray-Boyles’ defensive chops and remain a Jonathan Mogbo stan.

Advertisement

Toronto parted ways with longtime president Masai Ujiri during the offseason, and GM Bobby Webste