Nigel Farage's Reform UK has commanding lead in polls amid voter concern over immigration and the cost of living. Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party could win the next UK general election if current trends continue. That would have radical consequences for the UK’s future as a political union – and for Ireland, North and South. These linked potential futures should be taken seriously by Irish political leaders and citizens.
A recent poll of polls puts Reform UK on 31 per cent, Labour 21 per cent, Conservatives 17 per cent, Liberal Democrats 14 per cent and Greens on 10 per cent.
A statistically sophisticated large poll gives Reform a landslide on the UK’s first-past-the-post system, with 444 seats compared to Labour’s 73 and the Conservatives’ seven.
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