How Scottish parties will try to maximise election votes in six months

21 minutes ago Share Save Glenn Campbell BBC Scotland political editor Share Save

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If the next Holyrood election was tomorrow, it would be widely expected that the SNP would win a fifth term in office. By "win" I mean finishing as the largest party and seeking to govern as a minority administration. That's the position the first minister John Swinney is in now, drawing support from rival parties on an issue-by-issue basis to get things done. This is the sort of outcome that the recent trend in opinion polls points towards. Labour tends to be in second place, with Reform UK third ahead of the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats. Of course the election is not tomorrow, it is in exactly six months time on Thursday 7 May 2026. Is that enough time for things to change? Yes, and all parties will be working flat out between now and then to maximise their vote and their influence in the next parliamentary term.

Who are the front runners?

There have been times when Swinney has suggested the contest is between the SNP under his leadership and the politics of Reform UK led by Nigel Farage. Some have argued that this approach has elevated Reform UK's position in the national debate. If so, the SNP knows that will probably cost them fewer votes than it will the established pro-UK parties. Farage will probably remain a bogeyman in the SNP's campaign to help their efforts to corral the anti-Reform UK vote. But Swinney framed the political choice differently in a social media post this week.