At the start of the year, Kazakhstan marked the third anniversary of Bloody January (in Kazakh, Qandy Qantar), the largest anti-government protests in the country’s modern history. What started on January 2, 2022, as peaceful rallies in Zhanaozen in response to rising gas prices quickly escalated into nationwide demonstrations, with thousands demanding political reforms. ​In some areas, ​the ​protests​ devolved ​into riots, ​which the​ current administration violently suppressed.

From day one of the protests, security forces indiscriminately used excessive force against the crowds, including tear gas, stun grenades, and live ammunition. Later, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, labeling the protesters as “bandits” and “foreign-trained terrorists,” issued a chilling order – to “​shoot to kill without warning​.”

​​T​he tragic events, according to Kazakh authorities, claimed 238 lives, although the exact numbers are unlikely to be known under the current regime: despite numerous calls, Tokayev refused an international investigation, and the topic of the Bloody January victims remains taboo and suppressed by fear.

​​The ​”Reforming” Game

Before the 2022 protests, Tokayev was entirely under the patronage of his predecessor, ​Nursultan ​Nazarbayev. However, as a result of the deadly January unrest, he strengthened his political position for the first time, consolidating all power in his hands​ at last, after having come into the presidency following Nazarbayev’s 2019 resignation​. He removed virtually all of Nazarbayev’s clan’s influence, including Nazarbayev himself, stripping ​the former president ​of ​his ​”lifetime right” to lead the Security Council.

In March​ 2022​, Tokayev announced ​a ​reform agenda aimed at entering the era of justice – ​creating a ​“New Kazakhstan” ​– ​which was intended to renew the state apparatus and liberalize the party system. ​Tokayev’s ​“unprecedented” course envisioned enhancing the role of civil society institutions but, most importantly, reducing his own power.