Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru (second from right) chairs a meeting of the “Comprehensive Response Headquarters for U.S. Tariff Measures,” July 7, 2025. Also pictured are Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi (left), Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa (second from left) and Minister in charge of Economic Revitalization Akazawa Ryosei (right).

On July 20, Japan’s longtime ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), suffered a setback in the upper house election. As a result, the LDP now leads a minority government in both houses of the Diet for the first time in the past 70 years. Voters sent the government of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru a clear rebuke on its handling of domestic economic issues, and smaller populist parties such as Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) reaped significant gains in seats.

Yet, just two days after the election, when the Ishiba government was expected to be at its weakest, Japan announced a trade deal with the United States, a major victory after months of negotiations.

As Japanese politics enter a new more fluid and uncertain state, what are the implications for the country’s foreign policy moving forward?

Although much depends on the choices that politicians make in the weeks ahead, the immediate aftermath of the election already suggests several potential effects on Japanese foreign policy.