U.S. President Donald Trump has strongly implied that more permanent avoidance of his so-called reciprocal tariffs is available to those who strike a deal before the end of the 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

How does negotiating a trade deal actually work?

U.S. President Donald Trump has strongly implied that more permanent avoidance of his so-called reciprocal tariffs is available to those who strike a deal before the end of the 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

The United States has made demands of foreign governments on everything from their tariff policies and trade balances to how they regulate speech on social media. Faced with losing a massively lucrative U.S. market due to the incoming tariffs, Trump hopes that governments will come to Washington and offer to address some or all of these in the hopes of securing an exemption. The president has claimed to already have “made 200 deals.” (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later denied this, suggesting that the president may have been referring to “subdeals” within broader trade agreements—itself a misleading statement, as no “subdeal” is agreed to until the full deal is, and many sections of an agreement are uncontroversial and purely administrative.)

But does any of this make sense? The speed at which the United States can do deals and how many it can get done before its (self-imposed) 90-day deadline—July 9—depends on how little the Trump administration is willing to accept from trading partners.

If the United States is OK with largely token gestures, such as those offered by Canada and Mexico after they were first hit with tariffs that Trump claimed were imposed in response to fentanyl traffickin