The report contains multiple, diverging scenarios, with ambiguity around the assumptions behind each one. As a result, advocates on all sides are predictably declaring the report either a welcome reality check on overconfidence in the clean energy transition or proof that the transition is unstoppable. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. Perpetually rising oil and gas demand should not be seen as the status quo, but neither should a faster transition be seen as inevitable. Much will depend on how countries view the national security implications of clean energy.

World leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil this week for the annual United Nations climate summit to confront a sobering reality: Global emissions from fossil fuels are set to reach a new high in 2025, the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels is out of reach , and the United States did not even bother to show up. Against this backdrop, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its flagship World Energy Outlook, making headlines for including a scenario in which oil demand continues to climb through 2050.

World leaders gathered in Belém, Brazil this week for the annual United Nations climate summit to confront a sobering reality: Global emissions from fossil fuels are set to reach a new high in 2025, the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels is out of reach, and the United States did not