In his first term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump tried and failed to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. Trump seems more determined this time. To understand how the White House might be thinking about Venezuela’s future, and how that fits into its broader policy in Latin America, I spoke with Oliver Stuenkel on the latest episode of FP Live. Stuenkel is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an associate professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo.

Is the White House attempting regime change in Venezuela? This week, the U.S. Navy’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, took up a new position in the Caribbean after leaving the Middle East last month. The latest maneuvering comes after weeks of U.S. strikes on boats in the region that the Trump administration alleges were involved in narcoterrorism—although those claims have not been backed up by evidence.

Is the White House attempting regime change in Venezuela? This week, the U.S. Navy’s largest warship, the USS Gerald R. Ford, took up a new position in the Caribbean after leaving the Middle East last month. The latest maneuvering comes after weeks of U.S. strikes on boats in the region that the Trump administration alleges were involved in narcoterrorism—although those claims have not been backed up by evidence.

In his first term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump tried and failed to remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power. Trump seems more determined this time. To understand how the White House might be thinking about Venezuela’s future, and how that fits into its broader policy in Latin America, I spoke with Oliver Stuenkel on the latest episode of FP Live. Stuenkel is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an associate professor at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo.

Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page or download the FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: Let’s start with Venezuela. This is quite a military buildup on Washington’s part. What do you think the White House’s goal is?

Oliver Stuenkel: Everybody is speculating, of course. For now, everything suggests that the Trump administration is seeking to scare Maduro into resigning. There’s still a lot of concern in Washington about potential unintended consequences of having boots on the ground. A significant part of the Trump electorate is very wary about military entanglement with uncertain exit strategies.

There are two factions in the White House. The MAGA faction, led by people like Richard Grenell, is very reluctant to use force to remove Maduro from power. They have actually sought to negotiate directly with the Venezuelan president. He could cut a deal to guarantee that the United States has access to Venezuelan oil.

But at the same time, there’s a faction led by Marco Rubio, who is also thinking about his long-term political career. He may have presidential ambitions, and being the secretary of state on whose watch regime change actually happe