The first answers may already be visible inside Iran. Days after the snapback took effect, the Guardian Council approved new laws stiffening punishments for espionage and collaboration with Israel or “hostile states” and restricting civilian drone use. Around the same time, the Fatehin special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted high-profile drills in Tehran, showcasing new uniforms and equipment. In a surprising move, the Expediency Council also conditionally approved Iran’s accession to the Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism, after years of resistance. Officially, some council members argued that compliance would disrupt funding for regional allies such as Hezbollah, part of a broader attempt to counter Western narratives of the country as supporting terrorism.

On Aug. 28, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom triggered the U.N. snapback mechanism, leading to the reinstatement of pre-2015 sanctions against Iran last month. Despite Russian and Chinese efforts to stall the process, their draft proposal was rejected by a majority in the U.N. Security Council. With snapback restored, Iran once again faces much harsher restrictions on arms sales, bans on ballistic missile activity, asset freezes, and travel bans. For policymakers in Washington, Brussels, and Jerusalem, one question quickly arose: How will Tehran respond?

On Aug. 28, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom triggered the U.N. snapback mechanism, leading to the reinstatement of pre-2015 sanctions against Iran last month. Despite Russian and Chinese efforts to stall the process, their draft proposal was rejected by a majority in the U.N. Security Council. With snapback restored, Iran once again faces much harsher restrictions on arms sales, bans on bal