The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been invaded by Rwanda five times. The first two times (from 1996-1997 and 1998-2003), it led to large, bloody wars that engulfed the whole country and the broader region, drawing in nine African armies. The following two conflicts (2006-2009 and 2012-2013)—in which Rwanda has denied involvement but it has been confirmed by United Nations investigators and independent observers—were limited to a small area along the border in North Kivu province.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been invaded by Rwanda five times. The first two times (from 1996-1997 and 1998-2003), it led to large, bloody wars that engulfed the whole country and the broader region, drawing in nine African armies. The following two conflicts (2006-2009 and 2012-2013)—in which Rwanda has denied involvement but it has been confirmed by United Nations investigators and independent observers—were limited to a small area along the border in North Kivu province.

This time, unfortunately, it’s most likely to be a repeat of 1998.

The DRC says that it is in the throes of a new invasion. The conflict has internally displaced close to 3 million people over the past 14 months and killed thousands. It risks setting ablaze the entire region, which could destabilize already rickety regimes such as the one in Burundi.

Amazingly, the reaction of donors and diplomats—who, in contrast with crises from Sudan to Ukraine, have significant leverage—until recently has largely been to condemn the Rwandan invasion but do little else.

The most recent conflict began in November 2021, when Rwanda backed a dormant rebel group, the March 23 Movement (M23), that was hunkered down on the flanks of Mount Sabyinyo, an extinct volcano on the border between Uganda, Rwanda, and the DRC.