The ASEAN Plan for a Post-American World

The highlights this week: ASEAN plans for an economic future beyond the United States, Thailand and Cambodia exchange their first shots since a July cease-fire, and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks out on Gaza at UNGA .

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: ASEAN plans for an economic future beyond the United States, Thailand and Cambodia exchange their first shots since a July cease-fire, and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks out on Gaza at UNGA.

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ASEAN’s Post-American Plan

Another day, another tariff. On Sept. 25, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his latest round of tariffs, encompassing a slightly strange grab bag of categories: pharmaceuticals, furniture, sinks, and heavy trucks. Calculating the exact value of ASEAN exports that fall in these buckets is hard. But some very rough calculations by me based on data from the Organisation of Economic Complexity comes up with a figure likely a little under $25bn.

For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an organization spanning the world’s most trade-dependent region—and which counts the United States as its second-biggest export market after China—this trade-policy Russian roulette is not something that it can take lightly.

Last week, ASEAN’s economic ministers met in Kuala Lumpur. Behind the typically measured-to-the-point-of-mealy-mouthed statements expressing “concern over the growing trend of protectionism and the rise of unilateral trade measures” was a quiet plan. ASEAN is now preparing for a trading future that does not rely on the United States.

As one well-placed person involved in shaping ASEAN’s stance on the matter put it to me, the United States accounts for about 13 percent of global trade, and if it defected from the current international trading system, that would hurt.