Before sanctions were imposed in 2022, nearly 90 percent of Russia’s fossil fuel exports were transported through the regular Western market. The Russian shadow fleet, which Moscow began assembling before the EU embargo, is not simply redirecting Russian oil to new Asian markets, however. It was deliberately assembled to circumvent the G-7+ oil price cap, which permits trade in Russian crude only if sold at a price below $60 a barrel. The cap relies on Western insurers to verify compliance, but Moscow built a closed system where every link—shipowner, manager, insurer, and flag registry—operates outside G-7 jurisdiction. Since 2021, shadow tankers’ share of Russian oil shipments has risen from 13 to 47 percent, as of this August . By the third year of the war, the fleet accounted for roughly a third of Russia’s fossil fuel export revenues, while fossil fuels overall continue to sustain 30-50 percent of the federal budget—and fund Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently declared that he was ready to impose sweeping sanctions on Russia—if NATO countries stopped buying Russian oil. Bold as it sounds, the reality is more complicated. Only three of NATO’s 32 members—Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey—still import Russian oil, while the European Union has committed to phasing out Russian foss