Budget 2026: Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe giving his budget speech in the Dáil. Photograph: Oireachtas TV
The Government has framed its more cautious budgetary approach as a hedge against uncertainty. By uncertainty, it means US tariffs.
“The certainties that have underpinned Ireland’s transformation are now being called into question,” Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said in his Budget 2026 speech.
But tariffs are having only a minimal impact on the Irish economy. They are expected to result in a modest 1 per cent drag on the economy over the medium term.
The real uncertainty bearing down on the State is the runaway train that is public expenditure.
This has been rising at an unsustainable rate for several years, driven by demographic pressures (a bigger population) and rising prices.
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