The administration’s “move fast and break things” approach to foreign policy has been consistent only in its chaos. There have been rapid shifts in America’s approach to high-profile global conflicts: pivoting to negotiations with Russia, promoting a cease-fire in Gaza, and oscillating between threats of military action against Iran and offers of a newly negotiated nuclear deal.

Vladimir Lenin once noted that there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen. By that standard, the first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have comprised at least 20 years of foreign-policy change.

Vladimir Lenin once noted that there are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen. By that standard, the first hundred days of Donald Trump’s presidency have comprised at least 20 years of foreign-policy change.

The administration’s “move fast and break things” approach to foreign policy has been consistent only in its chaos. There have been rapid shifts in America’s approach to high-profile global conflicts: pivoting to negotiations with Russia, promoting a cease-fire in Gaza, and oscillating between threats of military action against Iran and offers of a newly negotiated nuclear deal.

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), meanwhile, was shuttered so suddenly that warehouses full of food aid were left to rot. There have been boundary-pushing immigration moves, including the outsourcing of immigration detention to the government of El Salvador. And then there’s the turmoil inflicted on financial markets by the uncertainty of the administration’s trade policy, involving tariffs turned on and off like a light switch at the president’s whims.

So how are we to make sense of the chaos? It’s clear that the second Trump administration is aiming for change—not inertia—in U.S. foreign policy, though the direction of that change is unclear. Still, there are four explanatory models worth considering as we try to explain its choices so far.

Model No. 1: The Return of Realpolitik

A drawn illustration of a bull charging at the globe with Trump's face in the negative space.

The first model we might apply to understanding Trump’s foreign policy is also perhaps the most coherent: the idea that the Trump administration is pursuing a hard-nosed return to realpolitik, prioritizing