Nobody can accurately predict the future (and if you can, please let us know), but we can identify some of the trends and events that may have significant impact in the future. Foreign Policy asked some of our smartest contributors to tell us what important trends, events, and elections they’re keeping an eye on in 2022. Here’s what they had to say.

2021 brought a whirlwind of foreign-policy developments: a war in Gaza and a new prime minister in Israel, a new conservative administration in Iran, a coup in Sudan, a power grab in Tunisia, a presidential assassination in Haiti, and a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, just to name a few. And although some of these events were completely unpredictable, others were the result of longer-term trends that experts were already watching.

Nobody can accurately predict the future (and if you can, please let us know), but we can identify some of the trends and events that may have significant impact in the future. Foreign Policy asked some of our smartest contributors to tell us what important trends, events, and elections they’re keeping an eye on in 2022. Here’s what they had to say.

1. Uttar Pradesh and the Future of India

by Sumit Ganguly, columnist at Foreign Policy as well as distinguished professor of political science and Rabindranath Tagore chair in Indian cultures and civilizations at Indiana University Bloomington

The most populous state in India, Uttar Pradesh (literally “northern province”), which has a total population of around 241 million, goes to the polls in March 2022 to elect a new legislative assembly as well as a new chief minister—and the outcome of the election will be immensely consequential for the future of India and its secular democracy.

The state’s current chief minister (the principal elected representative) is Yogi Adityanath (born Ajay Mohan Bisht), a Hindu priest and religious zealot who belongs to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).