For more than a year, another catastrophic war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has appeared imminent. Seasoned experts and some political figures have repeatedly raised the alarm, citing the seemingly irreconcilable differences between the leaders of the two states, escalating rhetoric, and military mobilizations as the most ominous signs.

For more than a year, another catastrophic war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has appeared imminent. Seasoned experts and some political figures have repeatedly raised the alarm, citing the seemingly irreconcilable differences between the leaders of the two states, escalating rhetoric, and military mobilizations as the most ominous signs.

So far, mutual uncertainty has helped keep the peace. But recent developments in Ethiopia’s Tigray region may further erode this fragile balance and trigger a conflict.

Although Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki had been close political allies between 2018 and 2022, the fallout of the war in Tigray and Ethiopia’s subsequent push for sea access have created a wide chasm. Ethiopian leaders have also openly questioned the legitimacy of Eritrea’s 1993 independence, and both sides have traded public allegations of ill intent and belligerence. Rumors of arms purchases and military deployments to the area of Assab—an Eritrean Red Sea port Ethiopian authorities covet—seem increasingly likely to be closer to fact than fiction.

Yet Eritrea and Ethiopia have not gone to war. This restraint has been undergirded by the fact that both Addis Ababa and Asmara lack confidence that they would prevail in a conflict. The trajectory of wars is always difficult to predict ex ante, but this is doubly so along the 620-mile Eritrea-Ethiopia frontier. Both sides have waged wars in recent memory that have not gone according to plan. The responses of critical international actors including the United States and the Gulf remain hard to forecast, and political flux in Tigray has made it impossible to