Will the witching hour seen on markets at frequent intervals fall on the last Sunday of this electoral month rather than right at its end on Halloween? All eyes are on whether President Javier Milei wins or loses the upcoming midterms but first we must define our terms. Since neither victory nor defeat in any absolute sense are possible with overall Congress majorities out of reach when 178 of the 329 seats are not at stake while La Libertad Avanza (LLA) could hardly fail to improve on their last 2021 midterm haul of two deputies, what exactly would constitute a win?
To lay any claim to a positive result, pundits suggest that Milei would need to be the leading minority with at least 35 percent of the vote. The first objective looks like a done deal since LLA is the only nationwide contender. Fuerza Patria is representing Peronism in only 14 of the 23 provinces with electorates of moderate size in at least three of the other nine (Entre Ríos, Mendoza and Tucumán) – even repeating last month’s landslide in Buenos Aires Province would not make up the difference.
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