Global temperatures are set to cool in 2025 compared to the record-breaking heat over the past 12 months – perhaps an indication of a more positive climate calendar for the coming year.

According to the UK's national weather and climate service, the Met Office, the average global temperature for 2025 is forecast at between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above pre industrial levels – a shade cooler than the 1.54°C reported by the World Meteorological Organisation from January to September 2024.

“Years such as 2025, which aren’t dominated by the warming influence of El Nino, should be cooler,” said Prof Adam Scaife, who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for the year. El Nino is a complex weather pattern that describes the warming of ocean surface waters in the tropical Pacific region. “2016 was an El Nino year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature,” said Prof Scaife.

However, the Met Office has warned that despite a drop in temperatures, 2025 is still on track to be one of the three warmest years on record. On Monday, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the world must “exit this road to ruin … and we have no time to lose”. This came after the UN said the 10 hottest years on record were in the past decade, including 2024.

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