Beyond the question of which future Turkish Cypriots want, there’s the bigger question of whether their desires will matter. After putting its finger on the scale in Tatar’s favor during the last presidential election, Ankara may well do so again. And even if Erhurman wins, he will be seriously constrained in his pursuit of peaceful reunification. As a result, the island appears destined to remain divided, while the north is pulled deeper into Ankara’s geopolitical agenda.

On Oct. 19, citizens of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state under Turkey’s patronage in the northern third of the island of Cyprus, will be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a choice between two competing visions for their community: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, offers deeper alignment with the Turkish government and its undemocratic, combative policies. The challenger, Tufan Erhurman, promises a more balanced relationship with Ankara and a continued push for peace with the internationally recognized, European Union-member Republic of Cyprus (RoC).

On Oct. 19, citizens of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state under Turkey’s patronage in the northern third of the island of Cyprus, will be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a choice between two competing visions for their community: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, offers deepe