Beyond the question of which future Turkish Cypriots want, thereโ€™s the bigger question of whether their desires will matter. After putting its finger on the scale in Tatarโ€™s favor during the last presidential election, Ankara may well do so again. And even if Erhurman wins, he will be seriously constrained in his pursuit of peaceful reunification. As a result, the island appears destined to remain divided, while the north is pulled deeper into Ankaraโ€™s geopolitical agenda.

On Oct. 19, citizens of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state under Turkeyโ€™s patronage in the northern third of the island of Cyprus, will be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a choice between two competing visions for their community: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, offers deeper alignment with the Turkish government and its undemocratic, combative policies. The challenger, Tufan Erhurman, promises a more balanced relationship with Ankara and a continued push for peace with the internationally recognized, European Union-member Republic of Cyprus (RoC).

On Oct. 19, citizens of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, the unrecognized state under Turkeyโ€™s patronage in the northern third of the island of Cyprus, will be heading to the polls to elect a president. They face a choice between two competing visions for their community: The incumbent, Ersin Tatar, offers deepe

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