Perhaps time to let readers into a secret – these midterms are overrated. Simulations of the future distribution of Congress seats give various outcomes but they can be broadly simplified as follows – the best-case scenarios for President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) would give the LLA plus the PRO centre-right and other allies around 110 seats as against about 90 for Kirchnerism and the left with 50-plus in the middle whereas the worst-case scenarios would give the 110 seats to Kirchnerism and the left with some 90 for LLA/PRO etc. with again over 50 for the rest. We are told that the choice is “libertad or kirchnerismo” but neither libertarians nor Kirchnerism will be able to do very much with the 110 of the 257 seats accruing to whoever wins – Argentina’s middle ground has far less seats than Brazil’s "centrão" but could carry equivalent clout.
October 27 will
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