India is likely to pivot back to discounted Russian crude with imports surging to 1.8 million barrels per day early next year despite its higher interim intake of Middle Eastern crudes following the imposition of US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, according to analysts.
The US Treasury’s sanctions embargo against trading with the Russian companies intended to exert pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, came into effect on Friday. It forced Indian refiners who have been some of its loyal buyers to scramble for alternatives.
Indian imports are forecast to drop to 1.4 million bpd in December and January, according to research company Kpler. However, the analytics firm expects a business-as-usual scenario once the initial sanctions’ scrutiny wears off, with India buying up to 1.8 mil
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