What Abu Dhabi’s financial services sector may look like in 2045

The question facing every financial hub isn’t whether they can facilitate more transactions; it’s whether they can serve economies that look nothing like they did 20 years ago.

A biotech SME needs capital tied to clinical milestones rather than traditional asset-backed lending. An autonomous vehicle manufacturer requires insurance without historical loss data. A solar developer seeks transition finance linked to verified carbon reductions. Millions of professionals moving across the Gulf still cannot take long-term savings across borders.

These scenarios expose the gap between 20th-century financial infrastructure and 21st-century financial requirements. Being a hub for capital is no longer sufficient: the future belongs to ecosystems where capital, regulation, expertise and innovation move as fluidly as the economies they serve.

Abu Dhabi’s ambition is to be one of those global financial ecosystems, and how it pursues that ambition matters.

For decades, the UAE and the wider Gulf Co-operation Council have long been exporters of capital. Regional sovereign wealth has helped stabilise global markets and finance growth elsewhere. Abu Dhabi alone manages $1.7 trillion in sovereign wealth, the largest concentration of any city in the world. At home, non-oil activities now account for more than half of Abu Dhabi’s economy, with non-oil gross domestic product reaching its highest quarterly value at Dh174.1 billion ($46.6 billion) in the second quarter of this year.

Globally, financial services are expected to reach Dh125 trillion by 2045, with technology-driven models capturing a growing share. Fintech revenues alone are projected to exceed Dh4 trillion by 2032. Abu Dhabi sees substantial opportunity in critical sectors where it competes, such as fintech, reinsurance, savings, private capital and others.