Millennials are the first generation to move left as they age, rewriting the rules of Australian politics

By Isabella Higgins, ABC Photo: Millennials came of age as the internet and smartphones redefined the world, and now they are the generation rewriting the rules of Australian politics. They are defying the long-held wisdom that voters often become more conservative as they age, and are, in fact, becoming more progressive as they mature. The findings come from the latest Australian Election Study (AES) from the Australian National University, one of the most substantial deep dives into voting trends at federal elections conducted since 1987. Millennials' support for the Coalition fell from 38 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in 2025, while Labor's support rose from 33 percent to 37 percent, the latest AES found. The trend has surprised the experts behind the study, who still observe the "conservative maturation theory" among older Australian generations. This new phenomenon promises to challenge Australia's conservative parties moving forward, as they attempt to win over this key demographic. Millennials are no longer a young and fickle voting bloc. In fact, the eldest of this cohort has been voting since the 2001 federal election. Most are now in their 30s and 40s - a core part of the workforce - and many have families, mortgages and ever-growing responsibilities at home. For this generation, the Australian dream might feel like a broken promise of a bygone era, and so they have re-imagined the political landscape. Challenge for 'frustrated' and 'anti-establishment' generations Millennials are acutely feeling the pressure of housing unaffordability, the cost of living, and the changing shape of the world. Many were told by their parents to study hard, work hard, and were promised that if they did, home ownership and a good job could be theirs. Instead, they watched as major technology companies, innovation and AI reshaped the job market and felt increasing casualisation and insecurity in many industries. They saw house prices soar and discovered that a good income and hard work are not always enough to get onto the Australian property ladder. It is a group that has seen old, trusted international alliances tested in ways never imagined and new global superpowers emerge. They have felt the climate change around them, and observed leaders wrestle with how, if at all, they should tackle this existential threat. They have responded to all these pressures at the ballot box and over the past four election cycles have shifted their vote to the left. Millennials and generation Z, the cohort beneath them, now make up a significant portion of the electorate, an estimated 42 percent. Elections will be won and lost on the support of this young voting group. Gen Z, born between 1997 and 2012, shows similar voting patterns to millennials, with lower support for the Coalition and higher support for Labor and the Greens. Despite being the younger generation, gen Z voters still recorded slightly higher support for the Coalition, with 28 percent, compared to millennials' 21 percent. "Unchecked, the current levels and trajectories of party support revealed here point to Labor dominating federal politics for the foreseeable future," the AES authors wrote. The survey also found many voters in both cohorts were turning to minor parties or independents. "They're moving away from major parties because they're becoming so desperate and frustrated with the establishment who isn't providing them with the platform for them to be able to flourish in life," Charlotte Mortlock, head of the Hilma Network, says. Mortlock is a millennial woman herself, who founded the Hilma Network to create a community for young women interested in the Liberal Party. "They will continue to be anti-establishment, and go towards smaller parties and independents unless the major parties can win them back," she says. Gender gap still defines Australian politics A gender gap exists in Australian politics, with women of all ages much more likely to vote for left-leaning parties, the AES found. The Coalition has not improved its female vote since the 1990s - 9 percent more men than women voted for the Coalition parties at the recent election, according to the AES. The shift of the female vote to the left has been observed in many advanced democracies, thought to reflect the increased educational status of women. Many millennial women are key contributors to household budgets, yet are still more likely to carry a greater domestic load or caring responsibilities. "We need to see women, mothers, working women, people at university and create policies that appeal to those different cohorts," Mortlock says. "I think historically we have done a really terrible job of speaking to women and meeting them where they're at." Photo: ABC / Matt Rovers But the Coalition's record-low results are not only being driven by women abandoning the party. "The overall proportion of men voting for the Coalition has also declined in each election...

Millennials are the first generation to move left as they age, rewriting the rules of Australian politics

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