This ceasefire is not enough to prevent the Gaza war from stretching into 2026

It has been nearly two months since a ceasefire deal was agreed for Gaza, and a little over a fortnight since the approval of a UN Security Council resolution authorising several steps to convert that ceasefire into long-term peace. And yet, the fighting continues, with the Palestinian death toll having crossed 70,000 over the weekend. All indicators point to this war extending into 2026.

Worse still, it is all too possible that Gaza will be cleaved in two. The so-called “yellow line” of withdrawal separates Israeli-controlled areas, where only a few thousand of Gaza’s two million residents live, from the heavily populated areas still under Palestinian control. The line, marked by yellow, concrete blocks, is meant to be a temporary measure that contains Israeli soldiers while Hamas disarms. Yet, on the Palestinian-controlled side of the line, Hamas remains not only armed, but in charge.

Israel, meanwhile, has shown little respect for the terms of the ceasefire nor restraint in its treatment of Palestinians; many of the yellow blocks have been planted hundreds of metres further into Palestinian-controlled areas than they should have, and more than 350 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the ceasefire began. Two of the deaths happened on Saturday, when an Israeli drone killed two children who are believed to h