What's next for China's economy in 2026 - and how it plans to tackle challenges
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People walk along the Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street during the five-day Labour Day holiday in Shanghai on May 4, 2025. (Photo:Reuters)
After a turbulent year marked by the trade war and domestic headwinds, China will head into 2026 cautiously as it grapples with structural challenges to growth.
Global investors are watching closely to see how Beijing works to shore up confidence, double down on strategic industries and mitigate overcapacity, all while navigating a fast-evolving geopolitical environment.
In this explainer, the South China Morning Post distils forecasts from major investment banks and economists on what to expect in 2026, also the first year of the next five-year plan - a socio-economic blueprint that typically sets the tone for policy direction.
GDP outlook
There is consensus among major financial institutions that China's economy will grow moderately in 2026, shaped by supportive policy measures and global pressures.
Goldman Sachs expects real gross domestic product to expand 4.8% next year, s
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