A nation growing old: Decade that will define Türkiye

Türkiye, long celebrated for its relatively young population compared to its Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) peers, now stands at a critical demographic crossroads. The nation is undergoing a rapid, recently accelerated transition from a young, growing populace to an aging society, a shift that is set to redefine its economic potential, social structure and political landscape.

A series of structural changes is swiftly leading Türkiye to a demographic crisis marked by a plunging fertility rate and a surging elderly population. While the aging process presents profound challenges, it is not an insurmountable threat but a defining moment that demands immediate, comprehensive and proactive policymaking, particularly the establishment of a robust elderly long-term care insurance system.

Current demographic reality

The recent data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) points toward an indisputable, fast-moving crisis. The key indicators of an aging society – a declining total fertility rate (TFR) and a rising median age – are shifting at a pace that compresses the transition seen over centuries in Western nations into mere decades for Türkiye.

Current statistics paint a stark picture: Plunging fertility is the most striking data. According to TurkStat, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to a historic low of 1.48 children per woman in 2024, remaining well below the replacement level of 2.1.